Garza and Dice K match up tomorrow evening as Boston travels down to Tampa for a 3 game set. Both teams have been hitting the ball better as of late and I'm not buying into the believf that Garza may have turned things around with his last start. His last start was against the Sox in Boston and it was effective. The thing is that Boston will get to see him for the second time in less than a week and that should give them a better chance at making better contact as a team.  Dice K was a walk machine against the Rays in his last start and I think he has the potential to get hit fairly hard in this affair. Both teams are hitting better and we only need four runs a piece to get a push in this one. If Dice K starts to walk people the way he did in the last matchup he will pay. Boston's bullpen has been awful and they will likely be called on somewhat early with the way Dice K's control has elluded him. Boston is missing a great deal of their most effective players with regards to hitting. Ellsbury, Martinez, Dustin, Lowell and more are out and this deflates the offense. I still they have enough to put up 5 runs here against Garza. The Rays should do the same and I see 10-12 runs being scored in this one. For me there is enough value to bet over 9 because when these teams meet there is the potential for one of the clubs to cover the total all by themselves. The Rays have been running very effectively on Boston catchers for a few years now and I expect more of the same tomorrow night. Crawford has stolen 36 consecutive bags against Boston and with Dice K's deliberate windup I expect the Running Rays to be off on the base paths tomorrow evening. Boston rose for the occasion the last time they were in Tampa and they put up a lot of runs. There is no doubt Boston needs to make a trade for second baseman while Dustin is out because Bill Hall is dreadful and incapable of starting on such a ballclub. This concerns me but again I think they fact that the Sox have just seen Garza gives them an edge. The same thing for the Rays is true as they have just seen Dice K and should benefit from seeing him as soon as this. They faced him in Boston just last week. The bats of the Rays have heated up and I have to ok this for a 1 unit play. Not the best play in the world but I think the likely conclusion is 10-12 runs scored. I would not be surprised if this was a 7-3 or 8-3 final....but I expect both teams to score at least 3 runs, with one team having a better time figuring out the opponents struggling pitcher. I will be watching and this should be a very enjoyable affair as these teams both still have the AL East title in their sights. Baseball is entering the second half and it should be a fantastic finish in the AL East. Good Luck.

Don't let the fact that the Blue Jays put up 5 runs in extra innings on Friday against super scrub Chan Ho Park and the struggling Robertson dissuade you in any way from pounding this total under tomorrow. I don't expect to see much of either clubs pen on Saturday. At the moment the Blue Jays are the coldest offensive team I've seen this year and Andy Pettitte is brilliant at taking advantage of teams which are not hitting the ball.The Yankees are having their own hitting woes as off late and their...

Don't let the fact that the Blue Jays put up 5 runs in extra innings on Friday against super scrub Chan Ho Park and the struggling Robertson dissuade you in any way from pounding this total under tomorrow. I don't expect to see much of either clubs pen on Saturday. At the moment the Blue Jays are the coldest offensive team I've seen this year and Andy Pettitte is brilliant at taking advantage of teams which are not hitting the ball.The Yankees are having their own hitting woes as off late and their lack of bench depth is hindering them in this regard. When a regular is struggling the Yankees don't have the luxury of resting him for a few days and calling for a solid vet of the bench, because there are no solid vets off the bench for this team. Instead the teams has the Pena's, Huffman's and Curtis's of the world to call on these days.

 

This is a far cry from Yankees teams of the recent past who were stacked off the bench. Toronto lefty Ricky Romero is about as hot as his team is cold, posting a ludicrous 0.86 ERA over his last 21 innings pitched. He should not have a hard time shutting down a Yankees team that is lacking cohesiveness right now and really laboring a bit. Pettitte should be licking his chops tomorrow. The Blue Jays only scored one run in the first 9 innings of Fridays game and AJ Burnett was on the hill. Burnett came in with an ERA of infinity over his previous 8 starts. Really people, this may end up a 1-0 game and If I can track down a total of 9, I may mortgage my house tomorrow morning before breakfast. These two clubs have not combined for more than 7 runs in any of their meetings this year, and Toronto has faced Vasquez (when he was struggling) and Burnett.

 

Dan Iassogna is going tobe behind the plate on Saturday and he is an under umpire. He has called 5 overs and 11 unders in his 16 gigs behind the plate in 2010 and his called strike percentage is 63,2. For two pitchers who are throwing strikes he will be welcomed insurance in their mutual plight to crush the opponents batters will. Pettitte has been very hot with the strikeout ball recently whiffing 19 batters in his last 3 outings. The Blue Jays are a very free swinging ball club and Pettite may possibly be able to weasel himself out of a potential scoring threat situation by firing a strikeout at just the right time. When balls are put in play pitchers get hurt and the combination of his prowess for the K and the Blue Jays' tendency to chase has me feeling very confident that he has the weapons in tact to keep the Jays' cold bats quiet. This game has a 4-2 feel to it with two pitchers on the mound who are mowing down the opposition and two squads of hitters whom are laboring at the moment. There are some other angles I like that favor the under as well, but I'm not going to write a tome here. Bet it under at 8.5 and if you find it at 9 say a prayer and smile.

Met a girl a few weeks ago and she gave me her number. She's young around 19. She tells me that she was diagnosed with ovarian cancer. At first she wouldnt tell me what she had, she just said she had something but didnt want to say because she didnt want me 'feeling sorry for her', so she kept me guessing for hrs. I obviously felt bad and did some research about the disease and came to the conclusion that I wanted to help and buy her a number of vitamins/herbs/supplements to help boost the immune system and fight the...

 

 

Nadal comes into Friday's match with Andy Murray installed at a -150 to -180 favorite depending on what books you're looking at. If he gets past Murray it is my belief that he will have a cake walk to the championship. He will have to face Djokovic or Berdych if he beats Murray tomorrow and he is the superior of those two players in every way possible. He is the superior of Murray as well, but Murray has something going for him that Nadal does not. Thats would be home court advantage of course. After the poor showing of the Brit Soccer club, every native of England will be cheering for Murray tomorrow and that will serve as a major kick in his behind. If Nadal can withstand the early storm I expect the level headed champion the be able to outlast someone who has never before won a major event. Nadal is too good a player to lose to Murray on this big a stage and Murray will feel the nerves tomorrow because Nadal puts more pressure on the opposition than any other player in the ATP. He showed in the match versus Soderling that he has overcome the injury issues and even a semi healthy Nadal is the scariest thing around at this stage of a Grand Slam. Expect the man who has won and won and won to find a way to beat a sniveling cry baby who has never won a major tournament.

 

Considering Nadal could be had at +120 to +130 to win Wimbledon, I strongly advise you to seek out that play. He's the best player remaining, he's the most accomplished player remaining, and he is the most mentally sound of the remaining players by a mile. The fortitude and ferocity that Nadal demonstrated after finding himself a set down to Soderling on Wednesday let me know that Nadal is very hungry to take down Wimbledon. With Federer out, this tournament is now his to lose and you can believe he's chomping at the bit to win it and to regain world number one status in the near future. it appears that the problems he had in earlier rounds when he was forced to five sets are behind him now. If they weren't, he would not have beaten Soderling three consecutive sets on Wednesday. This is going to be a great Match tomorrow, but Murray is too inconsistent a character to take Nadal out tomorrow. That being said I don't think your best play is to bet chalk on Nadal. Get the even money for him to win it all because he isn't losing to Djokovic or Berdych if he makes it to the final.I have already grabbed a good deal of +150 and I'm not hedging it out. I think class prevails tomorrow and Nadal is in a different league than every one else left in this touranment. Over 41.5 is also a good play because this will go four sets minimum. No one is going to sweep three sets from the other player here. This should be the match of the day. Enjoy and good luck.

Why should Tsvetena Pironkova be intimidated tomorrow at Wimbledon agasint higher ranked opponant Zvonareva? I dont see a reason for her to be. Sure Pironkova was ranked 82nd coming into Wimbledon while Zvonareva was ranked a very impressive 21st. Other than the rankings I can't see why Pironkova will be worried about the higger ranked Rusisan. Both faced off against one another in the Kremlin Cup back in October. In that match Pironkova obliterated Zvonareva 6-0 6-2 without breaking a sweat. I just got done watching video of that match and the 22 year old Bulgarian was not phased in the least by the older more experienced Russian. As we know Pironkova just swiftly and seemingly effortlessly disposed of top 5 ranked Venis Williams, who was listed as high as a -1200 favorite over the youngster. The Bulgarian did not feel the pressure and played a nearly flawless game agaisnt Williams, eliminating her in two quick sets. Granted, Williams played poorly, but in my estimation Pironkova's composure had a lot to do with Williams's stuggles. So we are looking at a girl who destroyed Venis Williams the other day and wrecked Zvonareva in their only battle, and yet is +4 tomorrow and a +230 dog overall. Someone is not getting the respect she deserves and her initials are TP.I expect both of these girls to deal with a bout of nerves early on, as neither of these players have ever advanced this far in a major.Zvonareva was gift wrapped a win in her last match with Kim Clijsters. Kim was in control of the match heading into the 2nd set when she began to unravel. She expereiced a bout with nerves as she hit many uncommon unforced errors and became a double faulting machine. If Kim did not choke that match away in the second set there is little doubt that she would have won the match 2 sets to zero. I feel Pironkova was more dominating against Williams than Zvonareva was against Clijsters. This is another reason why the dog is a good play in this match.

Pironkova seems to be playing with a carefree confidence that gives her an edge in my opinion, at least as far as this wager is concerned. Zvonareva may be the better player, but like in any sport certain matchups present problems for the opponent. While Zvonareva may have had a nagging injury in the first match between the two, she would have surely retired if she was in bad shape...instead of enduring the beat down that she became witness to. I just think Pironkova's confidence is too high right now to get blown out and it would not surprise me if she wins this match tomorrow. If Pironkova stays away from the unforced errors she will do very well in this match. Should be a very entertaining affair.....good luck to all.

I expect Robin Soderling to push Nadal to the edge in this match. I would be very surprised if this match didn't go five full sets. Keep in mind, just last year Soderling beat Nadal on clay to end the amazing winning streak Nadal had complied at the French Open. Yes, I expect him to take Rafa the distance tomorrow and perhaps pull off the small upset. Simply said; if Hasse and Petzschner can take Nadal to five sets then Soderling can win this. Soderling knows he can beat Nadal and Nadal is banged up. He has an injured knee and an injured arm. This is all we need to get us over the 41.5 games. Soderling will try and outslug him and keep him on the move so that Nadal must put a great deal of pressure on the knee. Remember just a few matches ago Nadal needed four injury timeouts to keep himself in the match. The longer the match goes the more it favors Soderling. Soderling has a very high fitness level and won't have to contend with the nagging injuires that Nadal will have to deal with all day. Make sure you play this bet at a book that needs the players to complete only one set for action because It's not out of the realm of possibility that Nadal will have to retire in the match due to injury. I wouldn't count on that happening because Nadal is a fighter of the first class, but It is a possibility that you should keep in mind.

 

The line has also dropped to Nadal -145 in some places as I type this. What does this tell you? He will most likely lose the match is what it tells me. Nadal simply looks like he's laboring out there and this is not a good thing against a talent like Soderling. Sure Nadal looked good against PHM in his last match but PHM is pure garbage. Nadal is vulnerable against the big servers and now he's facing one of the biggest. He has always been a little weaker on grass and has shanked quite a few balls during this tournament. I'll admit that I'm a Nadal fan and I'm biting my lip as I write this because I think Soderling may really work him tomorrow. Soderling's confidance will only grow if Nadal does not blow him out early and the over will be all but covered if that does not occur. Nadal is simply not in good enough form for that to happen, but he is a fighter and will always fight to the end. This is why I think this will likely go over 50 games. I see a tie break in one if not two of the sets which will account for 13 games alone. It is possible for this match to go 4 sets and still exceed the 41.5 games. Imagine the following scenario: 6-3/7-6/6-4/6-3 is a very conservative estimate. In this example we will still exceed the 41.5 games even if the match does not reach the 5 sets. Honestly, It would be a shocker to me if someone swept the other player. Nadal has too much heart and Soderling too much form for that to occur so I'm going with the over and leaving it at that.

Dustin Pedroia and Vic Martinez are very important cogs in the Boston machine, and yet they will be out of action for extended periods. One may think that a banged up Red Sox team is very vulnerable in this spot against Tampa Bay, but I don't get that impression. Varitek will do just fine filing in for Martinez and Bill Hall can carry the load at second for at least a couple of days. I think the bigger loss here is Crawford for Tampa Bay if he is forced to miss this two game set. If you recall, when the Bo Sox swept the Rays in Tampa last month, Vic Martinez was injured in the opener and It didn't hurt the Sox at all. Pedroia was very ineffective in that set and obviously that didn't hurt very much either. Crawford being out will hurt the most for the Rays. He is the best player on that club when you consider all around game, and his defense and base stealing will be sorely missed....especially for a team that is hurting to score runs. After the BJ Upton/Longoria blow up on Sunday, this team will be struggling to play like a team on the upcoming road trip. As a matter of fact, I think they're ready to implode. No one is hitting and they've gone so bad that now they're losing series to the Arizona Diamondbacks in Tampa Bay. If Crawford is not in the lineup they will struggle to score runs. James Shields has been awful and the Sox should be able to take advantage of him. Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, and Beltre give the Sox enough sock to still put up runs against a snake bit Rays starting staff. Lackey has not quite turned it around, but he's good enough to shut down an offense that is struggling as badly as the Rays are. The main concern for me here is the bullpen of the Sox. They have been brutal as of late and nearly everyone in their pen is getting hit and hit hard.

 

The bullpen woes concern me a great deal, but as I said...this Rays team is so quiet on offense right now that I believe they will struggle to put up runs in this series even against the Red Sox pen. This is a perfect time for the Sox to get their bullpen issues fixed. If the Sox were healthy, this series against Tampa Bay would be a rout. It turns out that they are not healthy, but you can't really say they have any poor hitters in their lineup (with the exception of Hall). They have just enough firepower to score 5-8 runs per game in the two game set, and enough pitching to hold the Rays to 3-4 per game. This is a very frustrated and lost Rays team right now and Boston is not a place you want to travel to when your club is not in the proper state of mind. If Crawford is out this is a 5 unit bet at -130 or better. If he is in, this is a 1 unit bet at up to -125. If Varitek and Hall can handle their jobs these should be two consecutive wins here for the Sox and the price is certainly right. Have to take the home chalk here and you'll be happy you did when the Red Sox putplay the Rays in Bean Town.

We all know that Steven Strasburg has opened up his big league career with some very solid performances. They have been so solid in fact hat many people are already grouping the kid in the same category as a Roger Clemens or Nolan Ryan. He has been extraordinary so far and deserves acclaim, but he has feced some less than fearsome opposition as well. Fourty one k's in 25 innings is pretty sick, but k's don't neccesarily translate to wins, especially when the team he's on is not an offensive powerhouse. As a matter of fact, his only loss was a result of his Nationals' inabilty to score even one run against the lowly Kansas City Royals. Grienke wasn't even on the mound that evening. Washington was also -239 favorites in that game and couldn't close the deal. So whether the kid is overrated or not is not what's important here. What's important is that the Nationals are overrated by odds makers and gamblers alike when Strasburg is on the hill. That's why this game presents value and that's why I'm betting it. I think it would be a bad idea to expect the kid to have a 5th consecutive great outing to begin his career. Atlanta is a tough place to win as well and the crowd should be jazzed to go root for the Braves against this future superstar.

 

Washington has been chalk every time the kid has pitched and heavy chalk at that. -175 was the lowest price of all four of his pitching outings,. This fact makes the line of +115 even more telling. The Nationals couldn't beat a horrible Royals club in Washington in Strasburg's last outing, why would it be easy for them to come into Atlanta and beat a very competant Braves team. It will not be easy, It will hard as hell, especially with Tim Hudson on the mound. This matchup will be far more formidable for the phenom than his previous obstacles. He had some easy outings against the likes of Cleveland, KC and the awful Pirates. Tomorrow will be his stiffest test yet and I have a strong feeling he may struggle a bit. The line seems to suggest he will have his struggles as well. The Nats team has been heavily favored in all of his outings and now they're dogs. Not only are they dogs but the line is moving Atlanta's way as we speak. Hudson is a fabulous pitcher and more than capable of shutting down the Nat's offence. If Strasburg struggles just a bit, that will probably be enough to make Atlanta the winners. Atlanta has struggled with the Nats in recent years and for that reason I'm also going to put in a two team parlay of Washington and the under. This will pay very well and offset and losses if it hits. I feel that this will be a very low scoring game and that the Braves will win, but in the event that they don't the parlay will likely bring home nice bucks. 2 units on Atlanta -115 and 1/2 a unit on Wash +115/U 7. I'll bet this makes me money. My predection on the game is 5-1 Atlanta.

Joe Saunders of the LA Angels is not the same pitcher he was two years ago and that's putting it mildly. In fact, he is a shell of himself. Above all he is simply brutal at home, and tomorrow we have a Joe Saunders home start to help us cash an over play. Saunders has a horrific 1-6 record at home and has been saddled with a miserable 6.75 ERA in his home starts this year. The opposing starter tomorrow for the Colorado Rockies is Aaron Cook. Cook has pitcher fairly wellrecently, but he has had a miserable time on the road this year, posting a very high 7.38 ERA on the road. With those ERA's for the starting pitchers and a low total of 8.5, there is no other play here but the over. There's more to support my conclusion that the over is a solid play. Colorado has supplied enormous run support in Cook's starts this season. They are scoring over 6 runs a game per contest for him in 2010. The Angels can hit, the Rockies can also hit a bit...so we ask ourselves why is this total at only 8.5? Well I believe the answer has a  great deal to do with the injuires Colorado has sustained. We know that Troy T is out for a while and that takes a lot of punch out of this Colorado lineup. Luckily Jonathan Herrara has taken his place rather nicely and is hitting over .450 since being called up in late May. The other reason this is low is because Brad Hawpe is questionable for the game. He's suffering from bruised ribs and is a big loss for the Colorado offense if not in the lineup. Either way, If Hawpe is in or if he is out, I'm taking the over in this spot. A college team could nail Saunders the way he pitchers at home and Colorado has been giving Cook consistant run support all season long. The Angels also can hit and considering the woeful ERA of Aaron Cook on the road, I feel pretty good that one of these clubs may eclipse the total all by themselves. If this game is 4-4 at any point in the contest the game is a winner. That's what I love about 8.5 totals. This one is just too good to pass up and I believe one of these guys will be hit hard and maybe head out for an early shpwer. It should be hot and humid in California and that makes it very likely that we will see a few balls parked. When two pitchers like these are toeing the slab in the same game it's silly to not stick at least a one unit play on the over. I'm going in for 5 units on this one, with or without Brad Hawpe in the line-up for Colorado. Just too much upside here and too much of a chance for one team to rock the opposing pitcher and put up most or all of the runs by themselves. I've been very hot lately and this play jumps off the board at me. I'm also taking the Argentina/Mexico over tomorrow and the Balt and Washington over 9 in case anyone wants to tail. The Angels game should have a lot of offensive fireworks so enjoy.